Session II: From risk to actions, make them happen.

Recorded Session

Aim: to consider how improved surveillance, control and prevention measures well address properly risk changes and forecast

Main issues:

AGENDA

10 DEC

SESSION II
  •  
Chair
Prof. Katharina Staerk
 
Round table moderators
Prof. Katharina Staerk
Dr. Corissa Miller
Dr.  Nick Lyons

Professor Lisa Boden

Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, The Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies and The Roslin Institute, Easter Bush CampusMidlothianEH25 9RG

This era has been characterized as one of acceleration due to the exponential growth of globalization, climate change and technology. There are increasing risks associated with (re)emergence of novel and existing animal and zoonotic diseases, and high uncertainty about when and where these may emerge first, and who may be most affected. Access to “Big Data” offers the potential to fast-track decision-making during outbreaks and there is a corresponding demand for high-speed technocratic approaches to policy-making.

Risk assessments, which evaluate the potential effectiveness of risk reduction strategies, may be technically robust but fail in practice if they do not take into account the lived experience of relevant stakeholders and wider society shouldering the burden of these risks. There is a professional and moral imperative for scientists and decision-makers to address risk perceptions, values and beliefs of different audiences in order to close knowledge gaps and communicate risk appropriately.

This presentation explores the role of risk communication and its aims, and considers effective strategies, barriers and opportunities for operationalisation. It concludes that effective communication, with the appropriate audiences and at the right time, leads to better and more ethical risk management.

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Emma L. Snary

Rachel A. Taylor, Robin R. L. Simons, Helen Roberts, Cecilia Hultén, Aline A. de Koeijer, Tapani Lyytikäinen, Sebastian Napp, Anette Boklund, Ronald Petie, Kaisa Sörén, Manon Swanenburg, Arianna Comin, Leena Seppä-Lassila, Maria Cabral and Clazien J. de Vos

1 Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), Weybridge, United Kingdom
2 Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra), London, United Kingdom
3 National Veterinary Institute (SVA), Uppsala, Sweden
4 Department of Bacteriology and Epidemiology, Wageningen Bioveterinary Research (WBVR), Wageningen University & Research, Lelystad, Netherlands
5 Finnish Food Authority ( Ruokavirasto), Helsinki, Finland
6 Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA IRTA-UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
7 Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Section for Animal Welfare and Disease Control, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark

Introduction
Risk assessments are often developed to assess the risk for a single disease and introduction pathway. However in recent years, generic risk tools have been developed that can assess the risk of incursion for multiple pathogens via multiple pathways. A collaborative project provided an opportunity for cross validation of several generic risk tools; each assessing an identical incursion scenario using, where possible, the same input data.

 

Materials & Methods
Seven generic RA tools were used to assess the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) virus to the Netherlands and Finland for the epidemiological situation in 2017 and for two hypothetical scenarios in which ASF cases were reported in wild boar and/or domestic pigs in Germany. The generic tools ranged from qualitative risk assessment tools to stochastic spatial risk models but were all parameterised using the same global databases for disease occurrence and trade in live animals and animal products. The risks for each country and scenario were calculated for each tool, for the three pathways most in common (trade in live animals, trade in animal products, and wild boar movements); relative risks were computed, and then compared across tools.

 

Results
For the 2017 situation, all tools evaluated the risk to the Netherlands to be higher than Finland for the live animal trade pathway, the risk to Finland the same or higher as the Netherlands for the wild boar pathway, while the tools were inconclusive on the animal products pathway. All tools agreed that the hypothetical presence of ASF in Germany increased the risk to the Netherlands, but not to Finland.

 

Discussion
The case study illustrated that conclusions on the risk of ASF virus incursion were similar across the generic RA tools, despite differences observed in calculated risks. It was concluded that the cross-validation contributed to the credibility of the results.


Research funded by an EFSA Partnering Grant (GP/EFSA/AFSCO/2017/01) and the CoVetLab consortium (CoVetLab 2017-5).

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A. H. Cabezas

Neo J. Mapits, Paolo Tizzani, Manuel J. Sanchez, Matthew Stone, Min-Kyung Park


1 Disease Status Department, World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris, France
2 World Animal Health Information and Analysis Department, World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris, France
3 Epidemiologia/Sistemas de información, Centro Panamericano de Fiebre Aftosa (PANAFTOSA), Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
4 International Standards and Science, World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris, France

Introduction

Foot-and-mouth disease is the first disease that the OIE established an official list of free territories since 1996 which has helped facilitate the trade of animals and animal products from those territories. Since 1996 there have been suspensions of FMD-free status which have impacted the livestock industry of the territories affected. The objective of this study is to identify associated factors with the time-to-recover the FMD-free status after suspension.

 

Materials and methods

Historical applications submitted (between 1996 and 2020) by OIE Members for FMD-free status recognitions and recoveries were used as the main source of data. Only FMD-free status suspensions due to outbreaks were considered. Data regarding Member socio-economic characteristics, livestock production systems, FMD outbreak characteristics, and control strategies were targeted for the analysis. Duration of time-to-recover the FMD-free status was estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. A Cox Proportional Hazard model was used to identify factors associated with the time-to-recover the FMD-free status after suspension.

 

Results

A total of 163 territories have been granted an official FMD-free status during the study period. The study population consisted of 45 FMD-free status suspensions. Africa and the Americas accounted for over 50% of FMD-free status suspensions while over 70% of them occurred in territories FMD free without vaccination. The study noted that implementing stamping-out or vaccination to-kill shortened the time to recover the FMD-free status compared to vaccination to-live policy. Other variables associated with the outcome were the income level, veterinary service capacity, time taken to implement measures and disposal of last case, borders with FMD-infected territories, and time elapsed since last FMD-free status suspension.

 

Discussion

This analysis will be used to improve the OIE standards for FMD and will contribute to policy processes of OIE Members for FMD control and elimination targeting fast and sustained recoveries. It will also provide useful indicators to improve capacity development services to OIE Members within the OIE PVS Pathway and through Public Private Partnerships for disease control.

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R. Palumbo

R. Condoleo, E. Chevanne, F. Rosso, D. Paton, G. Ferrari

1. The Pirbright Institute, Ash Road, Pirbright, UK.
2. Laboratory for Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Buea, Cameroon.
3. European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth disease (EuFMD), Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy.

Introduction

The progress along the Foot-and-Mouth disease (FMD) PCP is assessed through a questionnaire named Self-Assessment Tool (SAT). The SAT is structured in 93 stage-specific statements related to activities that should be implemented to initially gain an understanding of the epidemiology of FMD (Stage 1), that in turn should lead to implement a risk-based control plan (Stage 2) and finally to implement a Control Programme (Stage 3) aiming at FMD country or zonal freedom. An Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE) exercise was performed to identify which statements have a major impact on the risk posed by the country to its neighbours due to uncontrolled FMD under the assumption that each of the specific-stage statement contributes differently to meet the key outcomes of the stage (within stage weight) and that each stage have a different impact on the overall disease prevention, surveillance and control (between-stage weight) activities.

Materials and methods

Eight experts were elicited remotely by using the Delphi method through a questionnaire provided via email. They were asked individually to estimate: i) the within stage weight of each statement by providing three values (from 0 to 1), namely the most probable value (MPV), the minimum and the maximum values, and ii) the between-stage weight by indicating (in percentage) the contribution of each stage to the effective reduction of FMD load in a generic country.

Results

Most of the statements (76.3%) were considered important according to the MPV mean value (MPV score between 0.7 and 0.9). The mean weight shows that stage 3 was considered to contribute more (59.4%) compared to stage 2 (28.7%) and 1 (11.9%), respectively.

Discussion

While the weight differences between the statements are small, there was a remarkably higher weights that the experts assigned to stage 3, indicating (as expected) that certain statements have a significantly higher impact on the capacity to progressively reduce the FMD load.

 

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L.G. Corbellini

A.C.M. Vidor, A.C.F.A. Botelho, D.V. dos Santos

1. The Pirbright Institute, Ash Road, Pirbright, UK.
2. Laboratory for Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Buea, Cameroon.
3. European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth disease (EuFMD), Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy.

Introduction
In 2017 the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Supply launched the strategic plan to acquire a foot and mouth disease (FMD) free country status where vaccination is not practised. The objective of this study is to describe the development of the strategic plan that will be applied in the surveillance system for FMD in Brazil.

 

Materials and methods
The principles of the surveillance are: outlining activities to reach clearly defined objectives and targeting them to the highest risk areas using spatial multicriteria risk models. A participatory approach was adopted utilizing focus groups meetings (FG) to obtain opinions about the risk model from the veterinarians of the State Veterinary Offices, and Design Thinking (DT) approach with the stakeholders to define the surveillance objectives and actions. The DT methodology had meetings during the “Ideation” phase to define the objectives and actions of the surveillance system, and four interviews were made during the “Empathize” step of the process.

 

Results
Six States were included in the initial stage of the plan. Based on the content analysis of the FG, two kinds of opinions were observed: opinions based on subjectivity and opinions based on objectivity and targeted to the conceptual logic of the risk model. The objectives defined were: i) Reduce the risks of introduction and exposure of an animal to the FMD; ii) Reduce the risks of dissemination; iii) Identify and communicate risks; iv) Early detection. Several perceptions were gathered in the “Empathize” step, for example, the need for changing behavior during the inspections by the veterinarians.

Discussion
The surveillance system planning is currently ongoing. The participatory approach has been used to engage the participants from both the public and private sectors. We believe that the search for solutions-oriented by the objectives, definition of risk areas to increase the effectiveness, and empathy are important elements for the success of the program.

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T.J.D. Knight-Jones

N.A. Lyons, P. Motta, B.V. Ahmadi, J. Rushton, D.J. Paton

International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI); – EuFMD, FAO;  – University of Liverpool;  – The Pirbright Institute

Introduction
Vaccination is central to FMD control in many endemic settings. Yet the financial justification of this approach varies. In this study we assessed how FMD vaccination affects herd-level income considering various cattle production systems in different endemic settings.


Materials and methods
A stochastic partial-budget calculator was designed to assess the change in farm income from FMD vaccination. Expected FMD impact without vaccination was compared to costs and reductions in impact with vaccination. Model inputs included incidence, production losses, treatment and vaccination costs, and vaccine effectiveness. Data for parameterisation were obtained from field studies, literature and expert opinion. Data was available on the losses incurred due to FMD for a range of husbandry systems in different countries, but data on FMD incidence and vaccination effectiveness often had to be estimated.


Results
In some settings FMD vaccination was expected to greatly increase herd-level income. In others it tended to reduce herd-income. This was greatly influenced by the importance of milk production, the frequency of FMD outbreaks, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination costs.


Discussion
Although some farmers should invest in FMD vaccination, for others vaccination-based control only makes sense if it is at least partly funded by others as part of a wider FMD control programme. Furthermore, as incidence and risk reduce, the incentives for individuals to invest in vaccination diminish expanding the need for public or sector-level funding to further progress FMD control. A calculator with associated framework and guidance are provided to help stakeholders to identify information gaps and estimate the financial incentives for FMD vaccination in different settings.

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VanderWaal K

Paploski I. A. D Bhojwani R. K.; Makau D. N.; Sanhueza J.; Vilalta, C.; Corzo C.

1 Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN
2 Universidad Católica de Temuco, Temuco, Chile

Introduction
Although foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has been absent in the U.S. for decades, the recent introduction and rapid spread of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PED) provides a template for understanding dynamics of a large-scale epidemic of an exotic “fast” disease in the U.S. swine industry, including opportunities for risk-based control. However, implementation of risk-based measures is complicated given the rapidly changing nature of animal movements and multi-faceted environmental risk factors. Our objective is to forecast the risk of PED at the farm-level to promote data-informed disease management.


Materials and methods
We developed a machine learning platform to forecast (two-weeks-in-advance) the probability that a sow farm will become infected with PED using animal movement data, environmental risk factors, and weekly farm-level incidence from ~10% of the U.S. sow population. We also analyzed the length of outgoing infection chains within movement networks to quantify the potential spread of a newly introduced disease, such as FMD.

Results
Our pipeline detects ~20% of PED outbreaks that occur, and has a ~70% positive predictive value. The most important predictors were animal movement factors, including movements into neighboring farms <5-km of focal farms, followed by environmental factors. Infection chains originating from a single farm reached, on average, ~5 farms within six months, but upwards of 650 farms in extreme cases.


Discussion
Our forecasting platform generates weekly farm-level forecasts of PED risk that account for recent animal movements, present disease distribution, and environmental factors. The incorporation of behavior of (e.g., movements received by) neighboring farms is unique, and captures local spatial dynamics that are often overlooked in analyses of livestock networks. This platform forms the foundation for near real-time disease prediction and mapping, promotes data-informed and targeted disease prevention and management strategies, and can be readily adapted to other newly introduced FAST diseases.

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N.A. Lyons

M. Afzal, F. Toirov, A. Irshad, C. Bartels, J. Rushton

1 Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, UK

2 European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy

3 Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Islamabad, Pakistan

4 Animal Health Works, The Netherlands

Introduction

Livestock are an important part of the Pakistan economy where foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic. In 2015, Pakistan was placed in stage 2 of the Progressive Control Pathway (PCP) and there are considerations on advancement to stage 3 and establishing a disease-free zone within Punjab province. This requires significant investment and the paper reports on a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) undertaken to assess this change.

Materials and methods

The CBA framework considered costs based on normal aspects of programmes including mass vaccination, quarantine stations, and an individual animal identification system. Benefit streams included averted farm-level losses, treatment costs and improved prices from better access to export markets. Farm-level models were created to estimate the impact of FMD through reduced milk production, offtake rates, and changes in herd value. A separate beef feedlot model considered changes in animal value and extended time to finishing. Individual farm-level impacts were estimated over a 5-year period whilst the CBA was conducted over a 20-year period.

Results

At the production system level, the lowest impacts were among smallholder farms at a median estimate of 197,000PKR (1,196USD) and 449,000PKR (2,722USD) in subsistence and market-oriented systems respectively. The largest losses were among the corporate farms, with a median of 894m PKR (5.4mUSD). The CBA indicated a median benefit-cost ratio of 1.03 (90% central range 0.37-1.63) and a median net present value of 1.99 billion PKR (90% central range -37.7-37.0). The greatest cost was due to vaccination related activities at 56% of the total.

Discussion

The results indicated on average that the investment would be economically profitable, although there is a high degree of variation due to both variation and uncertainties regarding disease control and production loss issues. PCP progression requires careful economic consideration and necessary data on disease impacts to make rational decisions on FMD control policy.

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C. Colenutt

Montabord Djahne , Moetapele Letshwenyo, Metwally Samia , Madhur Dhingra, Baba Soumare, Muhammad Arshed Andriy Rozstalnyy , Paolo Motta, Etienne Chevanne and Keith Sumption

1Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
2World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), Paris, France
3European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth-Disease (EuFMD), Rome, Italy
* Corresponding authors

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) still occurs in large parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and the countries that are free of FMD today remains under constant threat of an incursion. The FAO and OIE Global FMD Control Strategy has been operational since its launch in 2012. The specific goal of this strategy is not only to reduce the impact of FMD on animal health and production in endemic countries, but also to maintain the official FMD-free status of Members already OIE recognised. The strategy has three components: a) improving global FMD control; b) strengthening Veterinary Services; c) controlling other TADs.

Progress in FMD control has been shown in the implementation of the strategy at national, regional and international levels. The strategy thus far has been successfully applied in about 80 affected Members where FMD is still endemic, with currently 9, 31, 26 and 4 countries or zones in the Progressive Control Pathway (PCP) stages 0, 1, 2 and 3, respectively. 10 countries/zones advanced to OIE official status or had their official control programmes endorsed by the OIE. This is a significant improvement compared to 28 and 5 Members that were in PCP stages 0 and OIE status respectively in 2012.
In addition to surveillance and diagnostics, Members in PCP stages 0-2 in particular require capacity building to conduct socio-economic impact assessments, cost benefit analysis to justify investments in FMD control to policy makers, and risk assessment for strategic guidance to FMD control for prioritizing limited resources. The support from international and development partners, regional and specialized organisations is therefore crucial to assist and guide evidence-based policies for FMD control.
The regional strategies for TADs control being developed jointly by FAO and OIE provide an opportunity for partners and stakeholders to be part of the process and develop capacity within the Members to achieve the objectives of the Global FMD Control Strategy by 2027.
In this paper, the achieved milestones, success stories, lessons learned, challenges and opportunities including the impact of COVID-19 in the implementation of the strategy are discussed.

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Ashley F Railey

Susan D Kerfua,  Thomas L Marsh

1 National Livestock Resources Research Institute, Uganda
2 Department of Sociology, Indiana University, USA
3 School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University, USA

Introduction
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks occur persistently in Uganda and Tanzania. FMD is well-known to reduce livestock income and milk production. However, we differentiate the direct economic impacts 1) between households in Tanzania and Uganda; and (2) on households suffering FMD outbreaks compared to neighboring, uninfected households. This provides improved understanding of the scope of the problem to target local and regional control policies.

 

Methods
Data come from a 2018 survey of 264 households in the Kyaka and Nsunga wards (Tanzania) and the Endinzi, Lwamaggwa, and Kakuuto counties (Uganda). We use difference-in-difference estimation to evaluate incremental consumption and production impacts attributable to FMD by assessing household characteristics and related food prices on livestock/product sales and household consumption before and after an outbreak. Additional regressions serve as robustness checks.

 

Results
The temporal effect of an outbreak reduces livestock and livestock product sales. FMD outbreaks reduce milk but not necessarily beef consumption. On average, Uganda sells and consumes more livestock products than Tanzania. There is limited evidence of different impacts between households suffering an outbreak and those uninfected in the same region. Sensitivity analyses support the negative impact of milk prices on milk consumption during an FMD outbreak, while change in sales has a positive and significant impact.

 

Discussion
Our results find that FMD outbreaks in endemic border regions reduce milk consumption in households that report FMD in the herd and households in the surrounding area. The impact holds across counties, despite country-level differences in outbreak response and milk markets. Beyond milk, we do not find significant differences across FMD infected households and uninfected households. Market activity likely mitigates differing impacts on households in the endemic regions. Stabilizing milk prices during an outbreak will likely have a larger impact on household nutritional security than directing relief directly to infected households.

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